Global Type 1 Diabetes Cases Projected to Rise 29% by 2049

New research presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) in Milan estimates that the number of people living with type 1 diabetes (T1D) worldwide will rise by 29%, from 9.4 million in 2025 to 12.1 million in 2049. The number of new cases diagnosed each year is estimated to increase by 14% over the same period, from 530,024 to 605,058. The estimates come from the DIAMOND-T1D model, led by Professor Anders Green of Steno Diabetes Center Odense in Denmark.

High-income countries are projected to see large increases in the number of people living with T1D. The U.K. is expected to see cases rise by around one-third, from 313,725 to 420,551, and the U.S. by more than half a million, from 1,492,825 to 2,055,235. Italy's prevalence is projected to grow by 16%, from 205,499 to 239,145. Despite these increases, the annual number of new cases in these high-income countries is expected to remain roughly similar to today.

Low-income countries are projected to see the number of new cases per year roughly double. In Tanzania, for example, annual new cases are estimated to rise from 3,275 to 6,177 between 2025 and 2049, while the total number of people living with T1D in the country is projected to double from 19,101 to 39,673.

The 0-19 age group accounted for an estimated 42% of new T1D cases globally in 2025, ranging from 37% in high-income countries to 49% in low-income countries. The model also estimates that all-cause deaths among people with T1D worldwide will rise from 361,383 in 2025 to 537,621 in 2049.