Study Maps How Wildfires Reach Western US Communities, Proposes Protective Buffers

A new analysis in the journal Environmental Research: Ecology finds that between 2000 and 2021, wildfires burned into 499 of 4,484 communities across 11 western US states, about 11%, causing property damage, disruption and loss of life. The study, by researcher William L. Baker, examined how the land immediately around communities affects whether fires reach them.

Baker classified 37 land uses into five "safeness" categories based on how often they burned between 2000 and 2021. The safest category burned once every 1,400 years or more, while the most dangerous burned once every 150 years or less; wildland vegetation such as grasslands and chaparral fell into the "Dangerous" category, burning about once every 190 years. Of the 788 fires that reached the 499 communities in that period, 95% burned through wildland vegetation and 88% through Very Dangerous or Dangerous land uses, while only 6% burned through the safest land uses.

The 2025 Los Angeles fires showed a similar pattern. The Palisades Fire burned 84.6% in wildland vegetation and 82.7% in dangerous land uses, while the Eaton Fire burned 81.9% in wildland vegetation and 79.0% in dangerous land uses, even under strong Santa Ana winds. Jon Keeley, a fire ecologist with the US Geological Survey, noted that irrigated citrus orchards once separating the Eaton area from the mountains used to help stop fires before they reached homes.

Baker proposes buffer zones around communities at distances of 100, 850, 2,500 and 5,000 metres to address embers, smoke, fire intensity and spread, noting that 5,000 metres is roughly the maximum distance at which embers can ignite a fire in a community. About $7 billion is funding the federal Confronting the Wildfire Crisis program for fuel-reduction treatments, which Baker says should be directed into these buffer zones near communities.