WMO Warns Current El Niño Could Turn ‘Extremely Strong’, Last Into Early 2027

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the current El Niño, driven by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, could intensify into an “extremely strong” event in the coming months and continue into early 2027. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures rise unusually in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, driven by changes in ocean-atmosphere interactions including weakening trade winds. It typically recurs every two to seven years and affects global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and rainfall distribution. The WMO expects the current event to reach “extremely strong,” its highest classification, with Pacific temperatures more than 2°C above normal.

A strong El Niño can disrupt global climate patterns, raising the likelihood of droughts, floods, storms and typhoons, the WMO said. Rainfall variability linked to the pattern can also affect agriculture, food security, water availability and energy systems. Ocean heat absorbed during an El Niño is gradually released into the atmosphere, often contributing to a rise in global temperatures the following year. The strong El Niño of 2023-24 contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record, and the WMO has warned that new temperature records could follow this event as well.

El Niño can also affect the Indian summer monsoon, the WMO noted, with strong events often linked to an increased chance of below-normal rainfall — though the effect varies from year to year. That variability can affect agricultural production, irrigation availability, rural livelihoods and food prices. The WMO called for strengthening early warning systems, climate forecasting and disaster preparedness, along with promoting drought-resistant crops, improving water management, and sharing climate information with the agriculture, health and energy sectors to reduce related risks.