China's CO2 Emissions Fell 1% in Q2 2026 as Oil Use Plunged

China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2026, driven for the first time mainly by a drop in oil use rather than coal, according to an analysis published by Carbon Brief. The fall came as oil consumption plunged following disruptions to supply through the Strait of Hormuz, with overall oil use down 9% and oil use for transport down 16%.

Electric vehicles (EVs) and public transport were key factors behind the falling oil demand, the analysis found. The effect of EVs on oil consumption was almost twice as large as would be expected from the growth in EV numbers alone, because usage of existing EVs also surged; oil displaced by EVs in China in the first half of 2026 exceeded the United Kingdom's total oil consumption over the same six months. Structural factors alone could not account for the size of the fall, leaving behaviour changes as the other likely explanation, the analysis said.

Even as oil use fell, coal-fired power generation rose, mainly because more solar and wind output was being "curtailed," or wasted, due to a power market and grid not fully adapted to variable renewable generation. Coal use for chemicals production also kept growing, though its pace slowed to 8% for the year so far, down from 15% growth in 2025 and 19% in the first quarter of 2026.

China's emissions rose 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 before falling 1% in the second, leaving them up only marginally across the first half of the year and still below their peak in 2023-24. The analysis said China's emissions could still fall for the full year, given continuing pressure on oil demand, declining real-estate construction and slower growth in coal-based chemicals production.