Climate Change Already Exposes 560 Million Children to Extra Dangerous Heat Each Year, Study Finds

Climate change already exposes up to 560 million children worldwide, or 43% of all children ages 0-9, to at least one additional month of dangerous heat stress every year, according to a new study led by Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) and published in Science Advances. That is nearly triple the 190 million people aged 60-69 (30% of that age group) facing the same extra month of heat, making children the age group most exposed to climate-driven heat.

The study is the first analysis to quantify how climate-driven heat exposure affects different age groups globally, both now and in the near future, combining population data with climate models and attribution science that identifies the role of human-caused warming in extreme weather. It defines heat stress using the wet-bulb globe temperature, a measure that accounts for humidity and wind, because humid heat is especially dangerous: it blunts the body's ability to cool itself by sweating.

Climate change has already nearly tripled the number of children exposed to at least five months of total heat stress a year, from 120 million (9% of children) in a world without climate change to 350 million (27%) today, compared with 120 million (18%) of people aged 60-69 exposed to the same threshold. South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Africa have the highest numbers of children exposed to dangerous heat today, the study found, because these tropical, poorer regions have young, fast-growing populations.

Exposure is projected to keep rising with further warming: in a 1.5°C world, 620 million children (49%) would face at least one additional month of heat stress a year, and in a 2°C world, 650 million (59%) would. "Children in developing countries face disproportionate exposure to climate extremes now and into the future, despite contributing the least to historical greenhouse gas emissions," said Rosa Pietroiusti, the study's lead author and a doctoral researcher at VUB.

Senior author Wim Thiery, a professor at VUB, said protecting future generations requires policymakers to urgently cut fossil fuel emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, alongside a large increase in climate finance to developing countries and targeted adaptation measures such as heat action plans and improved public health systems.