Study Finds Governments Worldwide Underreported COVID Deaths by Millions

Governments around the world reported far fewer COVID-19 deaths than actually occurred, according to a new study published in the Journal of Economic Growth. Economists Ariel Karlinsky of Hebrew University and Professor Moses Shayo of Hebrew University and King's College London compared official COVID-19 death counts with independent estimates based on excess mortality — deaths above the number that would normally be expected in a given period.

The researchers assembled mortality data from 134 countries and territories, drawing on national statistical offices, population registries and health ministries. Governments officially reported 5.08 million COVID-19 deaths worldwide in 2020 and 2021. The study's excess-mortality estimate put the true toll at 12.47 million, more than double the official figure. The analysis suggests that roughly 45% to 55% of governments misreported COVID-19 mortality, with underreporting far more common than overreporting.

The researchers first tested whether a country's statistical capacity — its ability to diagnose illness, register deaths and maintain reliable data systems — could explain the gap. Capacity accounted for only a small share of the variation. A stronger pattern appeared around institutional checks and balances: countries with stronger checks on government power showed much less underreporting. Misreporting was also lower in countries where citizens had more education and greater internet access, both of which make it easier for the public to evaluate official information.

To build their estimate, the researchers relied on excess mortality rather than official death counts alone, because those counts depend on how consistently a death is tested and recorded as caused by COVID-19. Excess mortality instead compares total deaths recorded during the pandemic with the number that would normally have been expected based on prior years, offering an independent check that does not rely on how a government classifies a death.

The authors note that reported COVID-19 figures also shaped international decisions such as travel restrictions during the pandemic, and they say similar reporting gaps in official statistics can affect other areas including foreign aid, climate action and vaccination campaigns.