Area Burned by Wildfires in Europe Could Nearly Triple as Climate Warms, Study Finds

Hotter, drier and windier conditions could nearly triple the area burned by wildfires across Europe by the end of the century, according to a new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) with contributions from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research. Under a low-emissions scenario, the researchers calculate that roughly 39% more land would burn each year by 2070-2100 compared with today's average; under a high-emissions scenario, that figure rises to around 192%, according to the study published in Global Change Biology.

'Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe,' said Maik Billing, a PIK researcher and the study's lead author. 'Our results indicate there could be widespread increases in burned area even under comparatively low warming of around 1.8 degrees Celsius. But if we emit more, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6 degrees Celsius, we see fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, including areas that have not experienced many fires to date.'

A second modeling approach, developed by the Senckenberg co-authors, found that continued improvements in fire prevention, detection and firefighting could reduce burned area by 92% in the 1.8-degree scenario and 72% in the 3.6-degree scenario -- though the authors cautioned that fire management may prove less effective than projected in a much warmer climate. 'We see fire conditions worsening, so we need to invest more,' said Senckenberg scientist and study co-author Thomas Hickler. 'The recent record fires in France clearly show that we cannot simply extrapolate from the experiences of the past.'

The findings come amid another severe wildfire season in Europe: according to the European Forest Fire Information System, around 550,000 hectares had burned across the EU as of August 12, 2026, about two and a half times the 20-year average for that point in the year.